On October 9, 2026, Fitch Ratings revised the outlook on Nigeria’s long-term issuer default ratings from Stable to Positive while affirming the rating at ‘B’. A Positive Outlook indicates that an upgrade is possible if current trends continue. Fitch linked the decision to sustained reform momentum, greater naira flexibility, disinflation, and a faster-than-expected buildup of external buffers.
Foreign exchange reserves reached $54.9 billion on September 25, 2026, up from $32 billion in mid-April 2024. Fitch cited improved reserve quality, stronger formalization of foreign-exchange transactions, portfolio inflows, higher export receipts, and remittances. The agency projects a current-account surplus of 6.4 percent of GDP in 2026 and real GDP growth of 4.3 percent in 2026 (up from 4 percent in 2025), with growth expected to stay above 4 percent through 2028, driven mainly by non-oil activity. Average inflation is forecast to ease to 15.4 percent in 2026—less than half its 2024 level—while oil production has met the OPEC target of 1.5 million barrels per day since May 2026.
The move follows positive rating actions by the other two major agencies in 2026: S&P Global upgraded Nigeria to ‘B’ from ‘B-’ in May, and Moody’s revised its outlook to Positive in August. FTSE Russell also restored Nigeria to Frontier Market status effective September 21, 2026. Taken together, the actions reflect a more favorable external assessment of Nigeria’s reform path under the Tinubu administration, including the removal of fuel subsidies, exchange-rate unification, and tax reforms.
Fitch still flagged areas for further progress: inflation remains elevated relative to peers, non-oil revenue is low relative to the size of the economy, and interest costs absorb a high share of revenue. The Ministry of Finance has stated that these constraints remain central to the government’s ongoing reform priorities, which include sustaining a transparent foreign-exchange regime, raising revenue through the new tax laws, improving fiscal governance, and advancing structural reforms to support non-oil growth and diversification.
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